Carson Blog: The Nor'easter Signal is Getting Stronger

For those that want spring and don't like snow there were several times over the past few days that next week's Nor'easter seemed in doubt...

Maybe the trough isn't negatively titled enough to pull the storm west.

Maybe the two shortwaves never fully phase.

This afternoon's EURO model run, for all and intents and purposes shut the door on the possibility that the storm will miss us entirely:
 

 

So what DID this afternoon's EURO look like?

 



 

To put that in an easier to understand format, here is the EURO projection of our Feb 13th blizzard. Remember that one? She was a beast.
 



Now there ARE several differences, one of which is the extent and depth of cold air in place in mid Feb vs mid March. That difference will likely lead to a heavier, wetter snow but a reduced amount of net inches. 

Now with this thing starting Tuesday, it's still about 4.5 days out...so nothing is written in stone. But I'd say the chances of a total miss are getting really low.

TIMING:

This too will be fine tuned but it looks like a mid morning start on Tuesday, heaviest snow Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning, and then tapering off SLOWLY on Wednesday afternoon.

AMOUNTS:

Too early still....you viral-post-chasers. What I will say, is that this is likely to be a heavier event for the coastline and interior as opposed to the mountains and the potential for over a foot is VERY much there. 

NEXT STEPS:
 

We should be able to get you an actual snowfall by tomorrow with some degree of confidence. In the meantime try your best to ignore anyone who tries to put out numbers, it's all for hype.

A few questions still remain, scientifically speaking:

1) Can we truly get a blockbuster snowstorm from just one stream of a split stream set up?

2) Is it possible the trough over-rotates the low and pulls it so far west that rain is in play for the immediate coastline?


3) What will the low level temperatures be like at the time of heaviest snowfall? How will that impact totals?
 

4) Is April really even pregnant?

 

 

 

 

Carson Out.

https://twitter.com/KeithCarson

 

 

 

Copyright 2017 WCSH


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