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Yeah, so about Memorial Day weekend...

1:44 PM, May 23, 2013   |    comments
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When I was offered the job here at the station a few years ago they employed a technique I like to call "intentionally burying the lead". It went a little something like this: "Keith we'd like to offer you the position. We think you'll really love Maine...it's a great state, it has the ocean, beautiful mountains, it's close to your home town of Boston, you'll be getting up at 2:30 AM on the weekends, the summers are beautiful and this station has a very loyal following."

I shall attempt the same thing:

Well it's almost time for the long weekend, most of us have 3 full days off, it's the official kick off of summer, lots of people grilling, it's going to rain most of the weekend, Memorial Day itself looks pretty good and the sun will set after 8 PM!

Today: Showers are increasing in coverage on the radar picture right now as a cold front approaches from the west. At first, the shower activity will be largely scattered and mainly light. But by the afternoon some thunderstorms will develop in New Hampshire and begin pushing east into the state. There is actually a severe thunderstorm threat for NH and into VT, but here in Maine the marine air layer should erode any severe characteristics such that any thunderstorms that arrive will produce some downpours and maybe small hail...but nothing severe. Temperatures stay in the upper 50s and low 60s for most.

Tonight: As a cold front pushes into Maine look for an evening of showers and thunderstorms broken up by cloudy skies and fog. If the line of thunderstorms likely to develop over NH this afternoon can hold together through the night, many of us will wake up to the rumble of thunder by early tomorrow morning. Downpours are possible as the amount of available moisture in the atmosphere is tres high. Overnight low temperatures don't drop below 53 F in most spots.

Friday: The cold front will stall over our great state, allowing for widespread rain during the morning with embedded thunderstorms. There will likely be a brief break in the action through mid-day before more showers and thunderstorms pop up for the afternoon. All in all, it's not looking good. Highs stay in the low 60s.

Things get really interesting (Read: Awful) on Friday night as a coastal low pressure system develops along the stalled out cold front.

I'll be honest with you, looking at it on the computer model charts this thing reminds me A LOT of a Nor'easter. It's a big, wrapped up low pressure system sitting and spinning to the east-southeast of Cape Cod, MA...

So what does that mean for out weekend? It ain't good.

I see Saturday as a washout. It won't rain constantly, but I'd say drops will be falling at least 70% of the day, so that counts as a washout to me. Downpours will be likely with some embedded rumbles of thunder once again. High temps? Low 50s should do it.

By Sunday the coastal low will spin a bit northeastward so instead of a total washout it will be more like "periods of rain". Still I wouldn't have any confidence planning outdoor activities as the computer models spit out .5 to 1" of rain. High temperatures stay cool, only in the low to mid 50s.

This is really cute: With the coastal low spinning in cooler air from Canada, the higher terrain of central Maine will likely see some SNOW on Sunday night. Accumulation will be light but..ummm...it's Memorial Day so we shouldn't even be having this conversation.

It looks like the storm will spin out of here just in time to save Memorial Day itself. I'm thinking a mixture of sun and clouds with highs in the mid 60s. It will feel like paradise in comparison to the weekend.

Ok I'm out of here. I apologize for this forecast. I hope we can stay together despite this bump in our love affair.

Twitter: @KeithCarsonWCSH

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