Back to spring

8:36 AM, Apr 4, 2013   |    comments
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As Paula Abdul, in her infinite wisdom, once said "Two steps forward, two steps back". (Man I forgot how cool it was in the early 90s to have a cartoon on screen with a human. One of those "it's awesome just because we recently learned how to do it" situations. See: Shaking hands with the president in Forrest Gump. Or more recently: Remaking every comic book movie ever within the past 5 years).

That pretty much sums up our spring so far. We pop into the low 50s for a few days, people start cleaning out their yards and then BAM back into the 20s and 30s.

It's been a rollercoaster, but the good news is we should stay at least over 45 F for high temperatures over the next 5-7 days...a good line in the sand between winter and spring.

Today: High pressure has built in from the west so look for mostly sunny skies from start to finish. High temperatures will respond nicely as our airmass has finally moderated, most of the state will end up in the upper 40s with southern Maine hitting the low 50s by the afternoon. The only negative of today will be the continued breezy conditions, winds will come in around 10-20 MPH out of the southwest.

Tonight: Mostly clear skies to start turn partly cloudy as the night progresses. Temperatures will drop into the upper 20s to low 30s quickly and then level out as the cloud cover increases and acts to insulate a bit.

Friday: Maine will be in a bit of a squeeze play to finish up the work week. A fairly large ocean storm will be sailing just to the east of us while a cold front drops down from the northwest into the mountains. The combination of the two will create more cloud cover than Thursday, but I don't think it will be overcast by any stretch. In fact, the most sunshine will be found across the interior...away from the coastal low, but still east of the approaching cold front. By the afternoon there will be some scattered shower activity (largely from the front) moving around the state, but some of us will remain dry. High temperatures should get into the low and mid 50s on a fairly warm flow.

Saturday: High pressure builds back into control for the beginning of the weekend, so look for mostly sunny skies. Temperatures will be a bit cooler than Friday as that frontal boundary will drag down some Canadian air. All and all I expect temperatures to have a hard time cracking the mid to upper 40s despite the wall to wall sun.

A warm front will approach on Sunday so look for more clouds for the second half of the weekend and a chance for rain showers over southern Maine and snow showers over northern Maine. The timing of this front is still largely up for debate via the computer models. One model has the precipitation holding off until the evening, and the other has showers first thing on Sunday morning. I am inclined to split the difference in this case and say increasing clouds with afternoon showers.

Next week brings us an interesting setup: There will be a warm front stalling down in the Boston area on Monday morning. To the north of the front temperatures will be cool...in the 40s, to the south of the front will be readings in the 60s and even warmer.

SO...the key to the Monday through Thursday forecast is where, exactly, the frontal boundary sets up in relation to Maine. It seems in this setup, this time of the year particularly, the warm front has a hard time pushing past Portsmouth, NH...leaving most of Maine on the cool side. I think that will be the case on Monday but I see a LITTLE wiggle in the boundary on Tuesday/Wednesday that could allow at least 2/3 of Maine to get into the 60s.

These things are tough to call so far in advance because of the small scale nature of the airmass boundary (a shift of 100 miles is huge), so I'll keep an eye on it and try to nail down temperature forecasts further by this weekend.

Twitter: @KeithCarsonWCSH

 

 

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