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Good looking weekend, thoughts on Tuesday storm

11:46 AM, Mar 15, 2013   |    comments
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Fun/depressing watercooler fact: On this day one year ago we hit 45 F beginning a warm up that would peak at a record high temperature of 82 F on March 22nd.

Today? Most spots are stuck in the 20s and my main forecasting concern is a potential snow storm for next Tuesday. #BuzzKill

(Ironically, after calling it 3 weeks in advance,  I missed that big warmup because I was in France. Still, that didn't stop me from gloating obnoxiously from 3,500 miles away. Long distance bragging: It's worth the roaming fees.)

Today: Mostly sunny and cool conditions will give way to some cloud cover moving in from west to east during the afternoon. Still, most of us will remain bright through the daylight hours with temperatures hovering around 32 F with a brisk northwest wind creating windchills in the teens and low 20s. I can't completely rule out a stray snow shower late in the day over western Maine/Mountains but for the most part any flakes will wait until the evening.

Tonight: A fairly weak and quick moving upper level disturbance will slide through overnight bringing a round of snow showers to most spots. The activity will arrive early in the evening over southern and western Maine but linger through the early morning over the Midcoast and Downeast. The vast majority of us will just see some flakes with a dusting, HOWEVER the Midcoast could pick up 1-2" of sneaky accumulation by the morning as the disturbance slows down a bit.

Saturday: High pressure will build down from Canada so look for a dry day. With some left over moisture at the low levels I'm inclined to call it "partly sunny" as opposed to "mostly sunny", but either way there will be a good deal of sunshine to be had. Temperatures will remain cool for this time of the year, with highs in the mid 30s in most locations.

Sunday: Mostly sunny and continued cool. Look for highs in the mid 30s again. Also look for a lot of drunk people with a 70% chance they are pretending to be Irish because it's cool.

After one more sunny day on Monday our attention will turn to a developing storm system scheduled to impact us on Tuesday.

There hasn't been a TON of change in regards to the development of that system in the last 24 hours. As it stands there is still a low pressure system digging into the Great Lakes by Monday night, eventually spawning a stronger coastal low by Tuesday morning. All computer models agree on this much. The key to this system is how far east that secondary coastal low develops. The GFS model has it developing to the west of Boston and tracking well west of Portland. This track produces a quick shot of snow and then a changeover to rain for everyone except the mountains. The EURO, however,  develops that coastal low further east and REALLY digs it out and wraps it up all the way until Wednesday morning. As such the EURO solution slams the mountains with 12-16" and even buries the coastline with 10-12" of snow.

So what's it gonna be? I know it sounds like a cop out but I like a blend of the two solutions right now. The EURO just seems too cold given the track of the low and the time of the year. (As Cupo put it last night: "Never in my (30+) years in Maine have I seen a low track over Boston in March and bring us snow here in Portland" To which I responded sheepishly: "I..t..turn 30 next week!") The GFS on the other hand seems to drag in too much warm air for its part. So I'm thinking everyone starts as snow, picks up a few (3-6"?) inches and then the coast changes over to rain while the mountains stay mainly snow and inland locations battle rain/snow all day.

That's a VERY early call though (even for me) so stay with me because this might evolve hugely over the weekend.

Twitter: @KeithCarsonWCSH

 

 

 

 

 

 

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