A few showers, a quiet weekend, and then watching Tuesday

12:08 PM, Mar 14, 2013   |    comments
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This is a weird time of the year weatherwise. Some days feel like spring, and you start thinking about breaking out your bike, doing some outdoor cleaning etc. But if you've spent more than a year or two in Maine you know it's just a tease...."real spring" is a month away.

It's kind of like hitting your sibling, getting caught by your mom and them whispering "I'll get you back laterrrrr." You'd rather just get it over with. Instead here we are waiting for Mother Nature to sucker punch us in the ear when we least expect it.

Rest of Today: An upper level disturbance rotating down from a stalled low pressure system to our north will promote increasing clouds and periods of rain and snow showers. I wish I could be more specific but these kind of showers are the equivalent of summer time thunderstorms: They just pop up and dissolve quickly. There could be a decent burst of snow from Bangor to Downeast later this afternoon according to the small scale computer models, but given the low level temperatures in the upper 30s, accumulation will be hard to come by.

Tonight: Any snow flurries wrap up by 10 PM. After that look for skies to go from mostly cloudy to partly cloudy as a weak ridge of high pressure builds in. That's all well and fine but the real headline tonight is that it will be MUCH colder than it's been. Many spots will dip into the teens with some single digits not out of the question in the mountains.

Friday: We will be in between upper level disturbances through much of Friday so look for more sunshine when compared to Thursday. It actually looks mostly sunny statewide through the morning and then clouds will slowly increase from west to east by the afternoon as the next "impulse" moves in. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 30s in most spots with some upper 30s over southwestern Maine. By about 5 PM a few snow showers will begin developing over western Maine, but it won't be a big deal.

Some snow shower activity is likely on Friday night as a weak clipper type system moves through. Accumulation is possible in the mountains but for the rest of us it looks like just some flakes and MAYBE a dusting.

A fairly distance high pressure system takes control of our weather for the weekend, bringing us dry and fairly pleasant conditions. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 30s both days with a mixture of sun and clouds. I'd say Sunday (St. Patrick's of course!) looks a bit sunnier with less moisture at the low to mid levels of the atmosphere.

Our nice weather continues into Monday before things get more complicated for Tuesday/Wednesday...

By Monday night there will be an inland low pressure system digging into the Great Lakes. Meanwhile a coastal low will try to develop off to the southeast, dragging in colder air and creating a stronger storm system (AKA. Miller Type B storm. AKA. Every snowstorm this winter AKA. Uh-oh).

Now the EURO and GFS agree on the general placement and phasing of the storm but their temperature profiles are VASTLY different. As a result the GFS is mainly rain for the coast and interior with the only big snow coming in the mountains. The EURO, however, has big snow all the way to the coast. How big you say? How about 16" in Portland, 13" in Bangor and 19" in Fryeburg.

CAUTION.CAUTION.CAUTION. Look, it's 6 days out. I don't buy either of these models completely yet so don't be telling your friends "Keith Carson says 15" of snow!!!" (As if you even talk about me in your spare time. #FalseSelfImportance). To be honest with you I'm torn right now. The EURO has been ON FIRE this winter in the 5-7 day range so there's that. However, I find it somewhat hard to believe that we are going to be snow all the way to the coast with a low pressure system passing directly over Boston, with an east wind...in March.

Bottom line: There's something out there, we will just have to watch it as we get closer.

I'll be nerding about this storm for the next few days at least: 


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