Some snow this weekend, but no it's no Blizzard 2013

8:30 AM, Feb 16, 2013   |    comments
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This part of the winter, after the NFL season wraps up and the holidays are a distant memory, really separates the snow lovers from the snow haters. I, myself, am honestly in the middle...which is quite rare I've found. I love a big storm from a forecasting standpoint and I'm a skier, HOWEVER I see the danger and hassle of snowfall on a day to day level as well.

Snow this weekend will be generally light (unless you are reading this from Downeast), so it will viewed as a tease for the snow lovers and another winter inconvenience for those dreaming of summer.

Today: An upper level disturbance is slowly drifting through the state from west to east. This is producing a area of generally light snowfall across the interior and pushing towards the coastline. There are a few bands I've noticed on the radar embedded in the light stuff that show signs of more moderate snowfall rates (Early morning reports of 2-2.5" of accumulation near these bands supports my theory), so don't be shocked to see 30 mins to an hour of more significant looking snow. Either way moisture is generally limited so total accumulation will range from a dusting to a max of 3" through the entire day. In fact, as the disturbance drifts offshore this afternoon look for some clearing across the mountains and interior with glimpses of sun likely. High temperatures will fall in the 35-40 F range.

Tonight: The upper level disturbance will try to merge with a low pressure system moving off the coast of the Mid-Atlantic. The result will be some light snow spinning back into the coastline through the evening, not adding up to very much, while interior and western Maine remain just cloudy. Exception: Small scale computer models are indicating a band of enhanced moisture over the Downeast through the evening so accumulation there could be in the 1-3" range.

Sunday: All computer models agree that there will be a large coastal low pressure system due east of Cape Cod by Sunday morning. However, they STILL don't agree on how much moisture that low will be able to spin back into Maine. I'm sticking with the EURO model that I've been riding basically all winter, which means light snow along the coastline to about 50-60 miles inland and moderate snowfall over Downeast by the afternoon. (I've made a map of course). For the vast majority of the state I see this is a minor event with a total of 3-5" accumulating (and that's INCLUDING what falls on Saturday). Downeast will be the exception because of the curvature of the coastline placing them closer to the low pressure system. A 4-8" accumulation is likely there with snow continuing through Sunday evening. In the mountains and foothills this is basically a non-event, picking up a dusting to 2."

Monday: As the coastal low moves away look for mostly sunny skies but a VERY windy day. The pressure gradient between the departing low and a high to the west will drive winds out of the northwest at 15-30 MPH with gusts up to 45 MPH. It won't be COLD, but it will feel very chilly with the windchill factored in.

Clouds will increase rapidly on Tuesday before a light storm system arrives Tuesday afternoon/night. Because there's a warm front involved there will likely be a change over to rain along the coastline with a few inches of snow across the mountains and interior. Not a big event though as it's a continental storm, not a coastal low.

Some indications of coastal storm possible for Friday, but right now I'm not ready to lock anything in.

One closing thought: As a middle ground on the whole snow love/hate debate I have to say I find the following argument hilarious, "If you don't love snow why don't you MOVE!!." There are many things to love about Maine, and I think some people just accept winter as part of the deal. It's kind of like saying if you don't like old people on golf cards you should MOVE out of Florida...well maybe you like the beaches.

Twitter: @KeithCarsonWCSH



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