Some snow Monday afternoon/night; then it melts

7:10 PM, Jan 27, 2013   |    comments
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This forecast is like a parental compromise forced by siblings battling in the backseat of a mini-van:
"Dad! She wants snow but I want it to be warm"
"You can't have either, just watch Ice Age VIII again"
"But daddddd"

"Fine, fine. She can have snow but we are melting it RIGHT away."

Tonight: Mostly clear and chilly again. Temperatures will drop into the single digits even along the coastline and get down to the -5 F range in most interior spots. The mountains could dip even further, to -15 F.

Monday: A sunny start to the day but clouds begin encroaching on southern Maine by noon, spreading to the Midcoast by 3-4 PM. Meanwhile from Bangor northward look for mostly sunny conditions to continue through sunset. Light snow will break out across southern and central New Hampshire by 2-3 PM and quickly push into southern and western Maine. From Freeport south all the way to Boston, snow will be ongoing during the evening commute. This snow will be associated with "overrunning" from a warm frontal boundary draped across MA. Generally these setups don't yield heavy snow so I'm thinking most of the precipitation is light with a few embedded moderate bands swinging through on either side of sunset.

Monday Night: Snow spreads a bit northward but likely never makes it to Bangor. Light to moderate bands produce off and on snow over southern Maine while it remains just cloudy over central and northern Maine. Eventually the dynamics of the warm front fizzle and just a few flakes remain by Tuesday morning. Forecast snowfall amounts can be found on a map I've posted, but in general we are looking at 1-3."

The warm front pushes north during the day on Tuesday providing slightly warmer air to push into southern and central Maine. Cloudy skies will be the rule on Tuesday with a few sprinkles and mountain flurries a possibility.

We will have to watch Tuesday night for some freezing drizzle as much of the atmosphere is warmed up but the surface remains borderline across interior and western Maine. Shouldn't be a huge deal as far as ice accretion, but it's worth noting for possibly slippery spots.

By Wednesday the warm front pushes into Canada and, as we say in the weather weenie world, "Let the torching begin." Most of the state will push into the upper 40s with ease and low 50s are definitely a possibility over the southern third of Maine. As a result, the next batch of precipitation will be all rain. It will rain at a moderate clip at times on Wednesday afternoon before tapering off late Wednesday night.

We return to cooler (but not arctic) conditions on Thursday and Friday.

Big Picture: I was just gazing deeply into the eyes of the long range models a few minutes ago...and they look COLD. Our overall pattern is polar jet stream dominated allowing arctic outbreaks every few days. Bottom line: February looks like an ice box. #Lockitin

Twitter: @KeithcarsonWCSH


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