Cold Monday, NORLUN Tuesday

6:55 PM, Jan 20, 2013   |    comments
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The Patriots are on and it's a busy day in the weather office so let's get right to it shall we?

Tonight: Gusty winds will continue as arctic air pulls in from Canada. Look for wind gusts up to 45 MPH through the early evening, dwindling to more like 35 MPH by 10-11 PM. Either way there is a Wind Advisory in effect for the gusty winds and a Wind Chill Advisory for the mountains due to the combination of the strong winds and cold temperatures (feeling like -25 F at times). Any early flurries will end by 9-10 PM and clearing will take place rapidly after midnight. That clearing, combined with the change in air mass, will allow temperatures to drop below zero in the mountains, single digits across the interior and low teens along the coastline.

Monday: High pressure builds in and provides mostly sunny skies for the beginning of the work week. That's the good news. The bad? It will be very cold. High temperatures will stay in the upper teens across the interior and MAYBE around 20 F near the coastline. Winds will still be a bit frisky too, so the wind chill will be very cold.

Things start to get interesting on Monday night as a NORLUN trough is still being hinted at by several computer models. I've explained this before but just to be consistent: the basic premise behind a NORLUN trough is a low pressure system passing to our east over the ocean and a weaker low situated to our west and a heavy, but narrow band of snow developing as a pathway between the two.

These troughs are notoriously fickle and difficult to forecast, but as it stands I like the snow to setup somewhere between Portsmouth, NH and Camden, ME. This entire region should be on alert for snow beginning late Monday night and continuing until Tuesday afternoon. Coastal locations (within about 30 miles of the coast) are particularly exposed for bands of heavier snow. Amounts? Ugh, so difficult right now but over 6" is not out of the question that's for sure. (Now if you watch me/read my blogs on a consistent basis you know I don't shy away from early and bold calls. But in the case of a NORLUN trough it would be pure voodoo to attempt to pinpoint the heavy snow at this point since the global computer models can barely locate the feature)

Meanwhile 80% of the state will be totally clear of this trough and end up with just some clouds and cold temperatures on Tuesday.

Bitter cold remains in place for Wednesday, which looks to be our coldest day of this cold snap. Highs will stay in the single digits in many spots with just 10-11 F even along the coastline. If it makes you feel any better it will be mostly sunny at least.

Same deal on Thursday, mostly sunny and cold with highs in the low to mid teens this time around.

By the way, the overnight lows on Tuesday night/Wednesday night will be in the -15 to 0 range. Brrr.

A more widespread snow event looks likely on Friday. At this point it looks a bit supressed and weak to be a HUGE storm, but decent accumulation is still likely.

I'll keep you updated on this NORLUN situation and will pinpoint the spot it sets up as soon as I feel confident. Go Pats!

Twitter: @KeithCarsonWCSH


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