Some snow for northern Maine, windy Sunday for everyone

7:48 PM, Jan 19, 2013   |    comments
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Something I've learned about weather over the years (Hey, hey I'm going to be 30 soon...): The perception of a day is all about the IMOBY experience. (IMOBY=In My Own Backyard. This truth is what makes forecasting for a big state like Maine so difficult. It's nearly impossible to nail everyone's IMOBY experience day to day #WeathermanExcuses)

See if you live in Downeast Maine, today was a snow day with 4"-8" of accumulation widespread. But if you live in central and southern Maine, it was fairly mild with glimpses of sunshine.

Tonight: A similar weather division of Maine will occur tonight as a second impulse arrives along a stalled out warm front. That will translate into developing snow from Berlin, NH across to Waterville and all points north. Look for the snow to develop after 11 PM and include some moderate bands through the early morning hours. Accumulation will be in the 2-3" range for most but north of Millinocket could end up with over 5". MEANWHILE, the Midcoast south to Portland and into coastal New Hampshire will just see a flurry or quick rain shower later this evening, but otherwise it will be cloudy, quiet and relatively mild.

Sunday: Light to moderate snow will continue north of Bangor through around 10 AM, otherwise look for mostly cloudy skies over northern Maine and a mixture of sun and clouds to the south. Temperatures will actually be fairly mild early, in the upper 30s, but will start to drop by the afternoon as an arctic cold front approaches. This front, because it separates such different air masses, will pack some very strong winds. Look for gusts up to 50 MPH through the afternoon with sustained winds in the 20-30 MPH range quite common. Some snow squalls are possible in the mountains and foothills in connection with the frontal passage, but most of us stay dry.

Monday: Sunny and cold. Highs will struggle to reach 10 F in the mountains, 15 F across the interior and 20 F along the coastline. Winds will still be a bit frisky, adding an extra bite to the air.

After a bitterly cold evening Monday night (-7 to 10 above), I'm watching the possible development of a NORLUN trough for southern coastal Maine on Tuesday.

If you don't know what a NORLUN trough is don't feel bad, it's pretty nerdy and that's why you have me...essentially its a pathway between a storm system out to sea and a smaller storm system inland (typically in the Great Lakes region). This pathway produces a very narrow band of heavy snow, sort of like a firehouse from the ocean. In any event, the computer models are hinting at a NORLUN developing over northern MA and lifting into coastal NH and southern Maine on Tuesday morning. I'm not totally sold on it yet as these troughs are notoriously poorly handled by the computer models, but it's certainly worth watching. (I have a theory on NORLUNs that relates a slogan a friend of mine and I developed while living in Boston. The slogan was "a watched Green Line never comes." See, we used to wait for this particular train on the Green Line on Mass Ave which was mind numbingly infrequent. Over time we determined that if you watched the track intently it would NEVER come, but if you got distracted for a while *POOF* it would appear like a dirty green gift from the heavens. Same thing with NORLUN troughs...seems like every time I see a hint of them on a the models... they don't materialize. Then they randomly pop up in some other situation totally unannounced)

Either way we are plunged into bitter cold on Tuesday and Wednesday with highs only in the 2-10 F range for Wednesday afternoon. Overnight lows will likely below freezing even along the coastline during this time period. Bottom line is, this is some of the coldest air I've seen plunged into Maine in a while.

Our next change of a statewide-non-fickle-NORLUN storm is Friday with a potential Nor'easter. Just a potential right now though, I'm far from locking it in.

Ok I'm out of here.

Twitter: @KeithCarsonWCSH

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