Me, yesterday in my blog: "The track is king here even more than usual, a shift 50 miles west and we will pick up 6 inches"
Me, today in my head: "The track shifted west, we will pick up 6 inches"
Me, in the future: Involves Tiny Tim's crutch and an empty seat at the Crachit table, I suppose.
The Setup: Currently Maine is caught in the middle of an energy transfer between an upper level low over NY state and a rapidly strengthening coastal low pressure system southeast of Long Island. That transfer brought widespread snow to the state earlier this evening but now the moisture is shifting to the coastal low and the precipitation bands are becoming more tightly wrapped around the core of that low. The net result will be moderate to heavy snow along the coast this evening while the rest of the state deals with just light precipitation.
Amounts: I've upped snowfall totals to 4-8" for the coastline as 1) the track pushed a bit west 2) the coastal low is now forecast to really "bomb out" to our east, which extends the precipitation shield a bit farther from the center of the low. Farther inland snowfall totals will still fall in the relatively harmless 3-6" range as they will be too far away from the moisture source. The real jackpot for snow will be over Downeast as the low will curve a bit more northward on it's way out late tonight, bringing it relatively close to that part of the state. I'm thinking 7-11" is a good bet for Downeast and inland almost to Bangor.
Timing: The heaviest snow will be from 9 PM through 2 AM over southern coastal Maine into the Midcoast and west into central Maine. The heaviest snow over Downeast and northern Maine will be from 1 AM to 6 AM.
Rain or Snow?: For the most part precipitation type won't be an issue as temperatures are pretty cold and we are not at all in danger of ending up on the "warm side" of this storm. The exceptions will be down towards Portsmouth,NH and up to the Kittery, ME area. The rest of us will actually experience a high "fluff factor" which will allow snowfall ratios to be in the 13: 1 range (13" of snow for every 1" of liquid. Typically the ratio is 10:1) AND make it easier to shovel.
Rapid clearing is expected over southern Maine by tomorrow morning, meanwhile Downeast will deal with snow until around 11 AM.
Some breaks of sun can't be ruled out by Sunday afternoon.
After that our weather turns less active as far as storms but winter continues to make a statement with bitterly cold temperatures.
Most of us will see overnight lows in the single digits on Sunday night with a bitter windchill and then again deal with single digit to below zero readings on Tuesday night and Wednesday night.
Luckily New Years Eve will be relatively "balmy" at 15-20 F.
Twitter: I just hit 2,000 followers and plan on gloating within the newsroom for a minimum of 4 days. @KeithCarsonWCSH