Quiet Sunday/Monday, Light snow on Christmas?

7:42 PM, Dec 22, 2012   |    comments
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A little snow can go a long way in the Christmas Cheer department. We were finishing up the last of our wrapping with Reese's this afternoon (obligatory cute photo of him) as some snow showers and snow squalls moved through. Ahh, so festive.

(By the way, I'm completely aware I'm the "dog parent" equivalent of this guy)

Tonight: The snow shower activity that was very widespread this afternoon will gradually dwindle through the evening. The moisture and instability driving the action will head into Canada along with the upper level low that was hanging around from Friday's storm. By midnight most of us will be dry, with the exception of lingering mountain flurries, but remain mostly cloudy. Temperatures will be cold, but nothing unusual...teens across the interior and low 20s along the coast. It will FEEL colder than that, however, with a brisk west wind at 10-20 MPH.

Sunday: The winds will pick up through the day on Sunday as a kind of "parting shot" from Friday's system...gusts up to 30 MPH from the west are likely. The good news is that there will be increased sunshine. I'd call it mostly sunny along the coast, partly cloudy inland and mostly cloudy in the mountains. The mountains will actually likely see some snow showers and squalls as a weak-tiny-baby-mini disturbance moves through during the afternoon. Temperatures will range from the mid 20s in the mountains to the mid 30s over southern Maine.

Monday: Mostly sunny and pleasant. Winds will settle so temperatures in the upper 20s to mid 30s will feel more pleasant.

Christmas Day: A weak storm system will be pushing across southern New England on Christmas Eve and it could clip our southern zones with some light snow just in time for Christmas morning. There will be a very sharp cutoff in the precipitation shield due to dry air in place to the north, so any slight change in the track of the low will change who sees some snow. Right now I'm thinking the southern 1/3 of the state is likely to see at least a dusting, with areas closer to the NH border receiving 1-2". Either way it's not a big deal, but timing is everything right? The rest of the state will just be cloudy and cool with highs in the low to mid 30s. (PS. I've made a map for your chances of snow on Christmas)

Wednesday looks quiet and sunny before a larger storm system approaches for Thursday.

Now, everyone and their mom is talking about a late week Nor'easter already. My opinion? Not so fast.

When I look at the large scale setup for this upcoming storm I don't see what makes it different from our last two systems which produced largely rain. The jet stream remains troughed out just a bit too far west in my opinion which drives the storm up the eastern seaboard, but on an inside track. The net result has been, and will continue to be "inside runners".

Now CLEARLY we are pretty far out still and small changes in the strength of other features in the atmosphere can easily change the track of this Thursday storm...but for now I say no go on a statewide snowstorm.

Twitter:@KeithCarsonWCSH

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