Light snow Sunday night/Monday morning, Rain Tuesday

8:18 PM, Dec 15, 2012   |    comments
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It's Complicated.- A Facebook relationship status that actually means "I'm currently in an awful relationship that I refuse to call off until I find a suitable replacement mate."

It's also an accurate way to describe this forecast.

Short version: Some light snow Sunday night/Monday over southern and Midcoastal Maine, followed by a short break, followed by heavier precipitation that begins as snow but quickly changes to rain overnight and into Tuesday, changing to rain EVEN in the mountains by Tuesday afternoon, followed by a mix on the way out Wednesday morning. Got it?

Tonight: Clear and cold. Most of the state will drop into the mid teens while northern Maine drops into the single digits.

Sunday: Mostly sunny with the exception of southern Maine, down there look for increasing clouds from southwest to northeast such that it will be mostly cloudy up to around Camden by early afternoon. Temperatures will stay in the upper 20s to low 30s for highs and there could be a stray snow shower over York county during the afternoon...but most precipitation holds off until dark.

Sunday Night: With a warm front sneaking into southern New England, some light snow will develop over the southern 1/3 or so of Maine and into New Hampshire. Accumulation will be relatively light by the morning hours, probably in the 1-2" range from Lewiston, west to Berlin, NH and south to Portsmouth, NH. North of that imaginary line look for just cloudy conditions with a few flurries possible.

Monday: Snow continues over southern Maine as the warm front pushes east and a weak secondary low develops out over the Atlantic. That secondary low will act to locally enhance snowfall along the coastline and just inland over York and Cumberland counties and up through the Midcoast. This could lead to a few bursts of moderate snow through midday and into the early afternoon. Just cloudy north of Bangor.

By Monday night a larger low pressure system arrives from the south. This one is MUCH stronger, but it is also much warmer as it will track to our west. As a result look for heavier bands of precipitation to start arriving on Monday evening, but very quickly the warm air will invade. So after another brief burst of snow over southern Maine, they will change to rain by midnight along the coastline and all rain over most of southern and central Maine by Tuesday morning. The mountains and north will hang onto snow through around midday on Tuesday but even THEY will eventually change over to all rain. (Look, I wish I could spin this another way for you snow lovers but this storm is dragging in SO much warm air. The "540 thickness line", a line we use to approximate the rain snow line on forecast maps, is basically pushed into the North Pole. So yeah Santa might hang onto a mix, but we are hosed.)

By Tuesday afternoon I see bands of moderate to heavy rainfall lashing Maine with very few areas still hanging on to wintry precipitation (only exception could be up towards Caribou).

That rain will continue through Tuesday night before tapering off Wednesday morning.

So what about amounts? Click HERE for my snowfall map. This will take you through Monday and into early Tuesday morning. The mountains and northern Maine WILL get more snow than depicted here, but it will after 7 AM on Tuesday and will be followed very quickly be a changeover to rain so I opted not to include the extra snowfall to make this whole thing easier to follow.

A risk no one is talking about for some reason: With snow on the ground and bands of heavy rainfall following immediately, I think we will have some flooding problems. This is particularly true over southern Maine where rainfall totals could exceed 3 inches in spots. I'll keep an eye on that for you as we get closer.

P.S. There is another storm scheduled for Friday, but no way I'm touching that bad boy yet.

Twitter: @KeithCarsonWCSH

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