Unsettled Saturday, Bright Sunday and a larger storm for Monday

1:08 PM, Dec 7, 2012   |    comments
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Well, that escalated quickly.

The number of "Where's the snow?!?" emails landing in my inbox has really gotten out of hand over the past few days.  I think it's the proximity to the holidays...people want a white Christmas more than when Bing Crosby tap dancing with Danny Kay.

The good news for those people: There will be some accumulating snow in the mountains and northern Maine.

The bad news for those people: MOST of the next two storms will fall in the form of just plain rain.

The watercooler news for those people: Gun found hidden in package of meat!

Rest of Today: Mostly cloudy and cool with some isolated sprinkles and mountain flurries over southern and western Maine. For the most part we will remain dry through the daylight hours but there are a few rouge showers holding together over New Hampshire and northern MA so I can't rule out a stray sprinkle making it into the state this afternoon. Temperatures will hold in the upper 30s to low 40s.

Tonight: As a warm front moves in, look for light rain to develop along the coastline and into southern Maine. In these locations it will be a cold rain, but it will be rain. Meanwhile off to the west there could be a few snow showers and patchy freezing drizzle where the air is likely to be a bit cooler at the surface. The rest of the state will just be cloudy and quiet with temperatures dropping to around freezing.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy with some light rain developing along the coastline and stretching inland about 50 miles. Moisture amounts look limited, however, so some of this light rain will be more like drizzle along the immediate coastline.Elsewhere a few scattered showers can't be ruled out, but most of the day will be dry and gloomy. High temperatures will be in the upper 30s to low 40s.

Saturday night: As the low pressure system associated with the aforementioned warm front lifts north into Canada, there will be another slug of moisture pushing through Maine. This time around it will be across western and northern Maine so precipitation type will be more wintry. Look for some freezing rain early in the evening before even the mountains change over to rain. The exception will be far northern Maine (up towards Caribou), they will remain snow and pick up a few inches of accumulation.

Sunday: We are between storm systems here but you wouldn't know it by looking outside. Mostly sunny skies and fairly pleasant conditions. It will be a bit windy, but that's the only real negative to the day. High temperatures will range between 40 and 45 F.

This is where it gets a bit tricky:

Another storm system approaches us on Sunday night and into Monday morning. Now, this storm is definitely an "inside runner", meaning it will pass to our west and eventually bring in some very warm air. HOWEVER, my concern lies with the onset of the storm.

The computer models are showing the classic hints of something we call "cold air damming" which is essentially cold air being supplied from the north via a ridge of high pressure as warmer air tries to ride in from the south at the mid levels. Typically in this setup the ground remains below freezing for several hours when the precipitation begins so you end up with some freezing rain.

As such I'm calling for freezing rain and sleet away from the coastline on Monday morning with some sleet and snow in the higher terrain. This mix will likely continue through around midday as the computer models are notorious for depicting the retreat of the cold air too quickly. Eventually the warm air WILL win out and we will all change over to just plain rain by the afternoon. But Monday morning could be tricky travel wise.

It's still early so maybe the whole system will warm up,  but stay with me on this and I'll keep you up to date.

Twitter: @KeithCarsonWCSH



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