Our pattern has definitely settled down for the next 5-6 days. The large scale indicators mid-range forecasters look at have all shifted to a more tranquil and warmer phase. It won't stay that way forever (some indications we will break back into an active pattern by Nov 17th or so), so enjoy it while it lasts.
Side note: This break in our active pattern doesn't really say much about the upcoming winter. I have a theory that if you have a cold and snowy October/November you are LESS likely to have snowy winter because the pattern needed for large storms along the eastern seaboard can't hold forever and eventually breaks down by mid-winter. However, in this case we got a shot of some early snow, but we didn't lock into a snowy pattern for any extended period of time. So, in short, both snow hatas and snow lovers could spin this current pattern to support their dreams.
Tonight: Mostly clear to start but clouds will eventually push into southern and western Maine after midnight as a warm front moves in. Still, the period of clear skies early on will allow temperatures to plummet. I expect the coastline to bottom out around freezing, the interior will hit the mid 20s and the mountains could end up in the teens.
Sunday: We might see some early sunshine but by mid-morning the previously mentioned warm front will be stalling over Maine. The stalled boundary will mean mostly cloudy skies through the rest of the day with a few isolated showers mixed in. The moisture with this front is very unimpressive and our mid level air is very dry, so that combination leads me to believe 95% of the state will remain dry. Still, any showers that find their way to the ground could be in the form of freezing drizzle over the mountains and even some northern valleys.
Monday: With the warm front now to our north, Maine will be in what we call "the warm sector" with a nice south-southwest wind. Look for mostly sunny skies across the interior with a mixture of sun and clouds along the coastline. Southern Maine is a lock to hit 60, but northern Maine will probably hover in the upper 50s. Either way, it's a good 10 F above average for most of us.
A cold front will push through on Tuesday so look for a good deal of shower activity, especially in the morning. Temperatures will remain fairly mild, in the mid 50s at least, until the front clears the coastline on Tuesday night.
Cooler but mostly sunny for Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.
As I said at the beginning of this blog...it's QUIET out there in the mid-range.
Movember Update: We are doing OK with donations but I know we can do better. Let's do this thang! http://us.movember.com/mospace/2830317