Cool but bright Saturday, Cloudy/wet Sunday

7:00 AM, Oct 13, 2012   |    comments
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I'm going to keep it short today as I've been stricken with an ailment more feared than Ebola and small pox combined: The dreaded MAN-COLD.

Speaking of cold, most of us are coming off the coldest night of the season so far with temperatures dropping into the 20s even along the immediate coastline. We will recover a bit today with mostly sunny skies but the second half of the weekend looks cloudy and wet.

Today: The cold start will make it hard for Maine to get over 52 F even by the afternoon. Look for mostly sunny skies, however, as the satellite picture this morning is almost totally clean. I do anticipate some cloud cover in the mountains by this afternoon with a west wind creating an "upslope" effect there. Still, most of us will be bright and cool for the balance of Saturday.

Tonight: As a warm front approaches look for rapidly increasing clouds from west to east. The first half of the evening will be clear, however, and that will allow for quick temperature drops at first. The low temperatures will be greatly dependent on how quickly the clouds flow in and start to insulate us. As it stands I'm going to keep most of us in the mid to upper 30s. By 1-2 AM precipitation will break out across western Maine. I say "precipitation" because it will be snow in the mountains at the onset and rain across the interior. There could be some light accumulation of a dusting to 1.5" in spots, but the general warmth of the ground should preclude anything over 1.5".

Sunday: Many of us wake up with rain on Sunday morning and even locations without rain falling will be overcast. That will be the story of the day, periods of rain, periods of dry weather...but almost constant cloud cover. If I had to try to time out the bands of steadier rain I'd say between 5 am and 9 am over southern Maine and then lifting to northern and Downeast Maine by around 2 PM. Temperatures will actually be a bit warmer than Saturday, just due to the airmass that is accompanying the front.

Monday: As the warm front lifts into northern Maine most of tue state will break into what we call "the warm sector." This is a classic setup for an unusually mild day, so I've bumped temperatures up a few degrees over what the computer models are spitting out, putting many of us in the low 70s by the afternoon. Now the only limiting factor for warming will be sunshine. It looks like partly sunny to me with the most sun to be found along the coastline, but more like mostly cloudy over the mountains. There will be a chance for an afternoon shower as the trailing cold front approaches, but most the day will be dry and mild.

Tuesday is still very much up for debate. One computer model gives us mostly sunny skies while the other gives us a VERY heavy rain storm. What is a meteorologist to do? Play favorites. The "Dr. No" model is the one that is more progressive with the system and therefore gives us sunshine, so I will lean towards that solution for the moment and give us a favorable Tuesday forecast. Just know it could change, HUGELY, by tomorrow.

Ok off to work on my last will and testament in case this man-cold never loosens its hold on me. :-)



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