Yesterday the Maine Mall area was almost "week-before-Christmas packed" due to the gloomy weather. I personally went to Target; where, no matter what I go in for originally, I leave with $55 worth of merchandise. (Is it just me or is Target slowly becoming just like Walmart? It used to be SO much classier but now they have supermarkets, narrow aisles and an in-house generic brand. Soon enough there will be a People of Target website). Anyhow, expect more the same today with packed stores, movie theaters and restaurants as the weather actually deteriorates when compared to Saturday.
Today: Cloudy conditions with drizzle will quickly give way to some heavier bands of rain. There is an area of precipitation streaming in from the south-southeast, grabbing moisture from the Gulf of Maine on the way. In my experience this southeast to northwest "fetch" off the water can produce some of the heavier rain Maine has to offer, so be prepared for periods of downpours. These heavier bursts of rain will be bookended by cloudy skies, drizzle and raw conditions. Temperatures will stay in the 50s in most spots, venturing into the low 60s to the west where the heavier rain will take longer to arrive.
Tonight: The heavier rain ends along the coastline but then shifts to the mountains and northern Maine. Downpours will continue there through around midnight before the low pressure system finally fizzles a bit as it moves into Canada. Even after the heavier rain has passed, however, overcast skies will dominate and drizzle will be widespread. Total rainfall amounts from Sunday morning through early Monday will be in the 1-1.5" in many spots.
Monday: It's BETTER but still not good (overheard during my on-air coaching sessions). The low pressure system responsible for the weekend rain will be up in Canada and drastically weaker. Still, its proximity to the state will mean quite a few showers will pop up, especially in the mountains. In fact, the mountains WILL get hit by a few showers whereas the coastline MAY catch a sprinkle or two. There will be a few coastal peeks of sunshine as drier air tries to push in from the southwest, but it will be a slow process and much of the day will remain mostly cloudy.
Tuesday is the first dry day in a while as a weak ridge of high pressure builds in. With all the debris from the previous storm and another approaching front from the south, however, I can't give us a mostly sunny forecast (well I could but I'd be wrong). Instead we'll call it a mixture of sun and clouds with more cloud cover over southern Maine in the afternoon. Temperatures will push into the upper 60s to low 70s.
Wednesday is a tough call as computer models paint a warm front RIGHT on the border of NH and ME. If it stays to the south like that most of the state will experience a dry and fairly pleasant day. However I've seen computer models have a hard time with the placement of fronts in the 3 day range so it's not a lock yet. My feeling is that southern Maine will see mostly cloudy conditions with a sprinkle or two while anywhere north of Lewiston will be all set with dry weather.
Showers return to the forecast for Thursday and perhaps again for Saturday.
All you need to know about the mid-range outlook:
Text message I received at 12:04 AM last night from a medium range forecaster friend- "Just did a full model sweep. Our October has EPIC fail written all over it."
Yes we really do send late-night texts like this, what of it?