Rain is already breaking out across New Hampshire and southwestern Maine, marking an early start to a wet and cloudy weekend. Truth is, it's moving a bit faster than we had planned (#things-overheard-in-a-90s-sitcom-romance-scene) as most of southern and central Maine will be engulfed in precipitation by 3 PM.
Today: Rain will continue to spread northeast through the afternoon. In some spots (see above) the rain has already begun and will continue straight through the evening. The further north you head, however, the higher the likelihood the precipitation will hold off until evening. Bangor should mark the southern edge of the region that will stay dry until at least 5 PM. Cloud cover will be thick and temperatures will stay in the 50s across most of the state with a raw feeling in the air.
Tonight: At this point it's raining over most of the state. There will be periods of downpours along the coastline, particularly over the Midcoast, but for the most part the rain will fall in the light to moderate range. When it's not raining look for cloudy skies and fog. Temperatures won't fall very much due to the insulating properties of low clouds, so most of us stay in the 50s overnight.
Saturday: As a coastal low pressure system (remember this is a bit of a hybrid: not a true BOMB of a low but not a weak continental low either), pushes northeast across the Gulf of Maine look for the axis of heaviest rain to shift Downeast. So after some heavy/moderate rain along the midcoast in the morning the precipitation will slacken from Camden down through Portland and westward through New Hampshire. It's not going to be NICE in these locations but conditions will go from "Rain" to "Showers/drizzle." Unfortunately, even with the main band of rain out of the area, persistent onshore flow makes me very pessimistic about any sunny breaks. Meanwhile, bands of heavy rain will continue to push into Downeast Maine giving them the highest rainfall totals through Saturday night. Temperatures will have a hard time cracking 60 anywhere. (The computer models are spitting out mid 60s but that's a pipe dream. No way we get that warm with an onshore flow and thick cloud cover...in late September at that).
Sunday: There isn't as much clear cut "forcing" to produce widespread rain at this point. This means the heavy stuff should be limited. However, Maine will still be under what we call "broad cyclonic flow" (I use the term "troughy" a lot to describe this), so unsettled conditions will still be the rule. I'm going with mostly cloudy skies, some coastal drizzle and scattered showers. All and all it doesn't look AS BAD as Saturday, but I'm still very skeptical about any real sunshine.
Another round of showers is likely on Monday so the next chance of a dry day appears to be Tuesday. Oh well, as Yogi would say, "It is what it is."
Sign you are watching too many Halloween horror movies: THIS is what appears under "Suggestions for You" on the Netflix home page. Not only do they know I like horror movies, they know I like BAD horror movies.