As a rule, it's fairly difficult to make me nervous when it comes to a forecast. I try to keep a confident attitude (Little known fact: "arrogant" automatically transitions to "confident" at age 27) and trust in my meteorological knowledge. That being said, I'm a LITTLE nervous about this weekend's forecast. It's not I'm-getting-married-outside-and-my-fiance-wants-ANSWERS nervous, it's more like this-forecast-looked-much-easier-yesterday nervous.
The source of my anxiety? A stalling cold front. The boundary is still on track to move through this evening with some showers and thunderstorms but the change comes on how quickly it moves offshore tomorrow morning. As of yesterday the computer models had it clearing into the Gulf of Maine by early morning, HOWEVER they have changed their tune a bit and are now keeping the front stalled just offshore through Saturday. This little twist in the forecast won't impact much of the state, but it definitely will make a difference along the coast.
On with it already!
Rest of today: Mostly sunny and pleasant. High clouds increase from west to east late in the afternoon out ahead of the approaching cold front (Oh, hey, did I mention there is a cold front involved in this forecast?). Highs generally top out between 80-85 with a bit of a sticky feeling in the air.
Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms form a thin line of convection and push from west to east through the evening. Timing will be such that southern and western Maine see the activity between 7 PM and 11 PM while Downeast deals with showers through the early morning hours.Temperatures stay in the 60s.
Saturday: Spatially speaking 90% of Maine will see a pleasant Saturday with a good deal of sunshine. (Or maybe more like 92%, I'm not a good person to trust on this stuff....I used to always fail "Spatial concepts" on standardized tests. In my defense when, in real life, do you have to guess what a folded piece of paper will look like when it's unfolded a certain way?) The further west you head, the more sunshine you can expect. Along the immediate coastline however that stalled out front could be a bit pesky. I'll call it a mixture of sun and clouds with isolated showers because I'm not TOTALLY buying the idea that the front will stall right along the coastline. I've included a probabilistic graphic for the chance of showers in the "Weather Extra" area.
Sunday: We end up with a similar spread in weather on Sunday, with the better conditions found further west. See, the front will have moved a bit further offshore at this point but there will be a baggy low pressure system riding along the boundary and close to Maine. So once again look for more clouds and the chance for showers along the coastline with mostly sunny conditions across the interior and mountains. Highs in the 70s.
Interesting pattern setting up for Monday-Wednesday as a Bermuda High tries to establish pleasant and dry weather while it fights general "troughy-ness" to our west. Overall I think next week will be pleasant with just some scattered afternoon showers, especially in the mountains. Humidity should be down though, so that's worth something.