I'll forgo the usual comedy and get right to the weather since this is a difficult forecast.

We (Maine) are on the very northern edge of a fairly serious severe threat that is developing for this evening. Most of the state will end up with just garden variety showers and storms but there is the chance southern Maine and New Hampshire could catch a few of the stronger, rotating thunderstorms that will be common across southern New England.

The setup is such that a warm front is draped across northern MA, separating the warmer, more unstable air from the cooler, stable air to the north of the boundary. So by that very description most of the state is in not ripe for severe weather. However the Storm Prediction Center (national center that monitors severe weather for the entire country) has placed southern Maine in an elevated risk for severe thunderstorms this evening.A picture is worth a thousand words...so take a look.  The reasoning is that some of the stronger storms will be able to "survive" the push across the warm front and enter the more stable air mass with severe characteristics.

This afternoon: Lots of clouds, some showers and isolated rumbles of thunder. I don't anticipate we will see anything too strong this afternoon as cloud cover is extensive and the "upstream" radar is looking very unimpressive. Temperatures hover in the low 70s in most spots.

Tonight: Central and northern Maine will be mostly cloudy with a few showers...nothing big there. Southern Maine will keep an eye out for any severe storms that are able to wander into the state from the south. In my opinion have some BIG negatives working against widespread severe, despite what the Storm Prediction Center says. 1) It's stable. We haven't seen much of anything in the sun department, so the "surface based instability" driven by daytime heating doesn't exist 2) We have an east wind in many spots. While a sea breeze might not always kill severe storms, a synoptic flow off the water sure can. So, stay tuned for any warnings etc, but I don't like our chances. Meanwhile temperatures drop into the 60s.

Friday: With the front still hanging around look for some morning showers and thunderstorms to be possible. Some of those storms could produce heavy rainfall since the atmosphere is juiced. There should be a late morning to early afternoon break with some clearing and sunshine which will only lead to the development of some late afternoon showers. Temperatures stay in the 70s in most spots.

Saturday: Computer models are developing a funky low to the south of Cape Cod that will keep instability in the region. I'm thinking a mixture of sun and clouds early, giving way to widespread showers and thunderstorms by the afternoon. Temperatures gain a little ground into the low 80s.

Sunday: I'm cautiously optimistic about Sunday. Some instability might be hanging around in the morning but I think enough dry air should work in from the west to prevent widespread shower activity and give us partly sunny skies. Either way I see Sunday as the better of the two weekend days, but stay tuned as far as the afternoon shower potential goes.

Overall our pattern has shifted to a more "active" (code for rainy) one. Systems will move through more often and high pressure will be harder to come by. But hey, we had a nice run right?