By BOB RATHGEBER
The (Fort Myers, Fla.) News-Press
FORT MYERS, Fla. -- Just when it seemed the Florida Republican presidential primary would be anticlimactic, Mitt Romney's waltz to victory took a hard left turn in South Carolina on Saturday night.
All of a sudden, Newt Gingrich is alive and well, and Romney could be fighting for his political life in Florida's presidential primary Jan. 31. It's a state that most experts say a candidate has to win to secure the nomination.
"I was prepared to listen to the fat lady sing," said Barry Willoughby, the Collier County tea party founder and political activist. "I really thought Gingrich was finished. I don't think Romney is desperate yet ... but."
Before his wheels came off last week, Romney had won the Iowa caucuses, the New Hampshire primary and was so far ahead in South Carolina and Florida that he looked unbeatable.
Then came seven days of trouble.
A recount took Iowa away from Romney, handing it to former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum. Then Gingrich, the former Speaker of the House, carved up the former Massachusetts governor in two South Carolina debates. At the same time Romney was pounded for not releasing his income tax records. And finally he was thumped by 12 points in Saturday's primary.
"We have a race, no doubt about it," said Peter Bergerson, political science professor at Florida Gulf Coast University and a longtime student of presidential races. "South Carolina was about vulture capitalism. It could turn into vulture politics where they eat each other."
Gary Lee, chairman of the Republican Party of Lee County, said Florida's move to an early primary was fortuitous.
"This effectively shows the wisdom of the state Legislature," he said, "to have an early primary. It further gives Florida more clout."
Florida was penalized 50 delegates for the Republican National Convention by moving out of turn. "It was absolutely worth it."
Romney, Santorum, Gingrich and the fourth man in the race, Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, headed to Florida late Saturday and early Sunday. They will appear in an NBC debate Monday night and Romney and Santorum began making campaign appearances Sunday afternoon.
Both Gingrich and Santorum, who finished third in South Carolina, will be in Southwest Florida on Tuesday.
Romney will deliver what his aides call a "major speech" Tuesday in advance of President Barack Obama's State of the Union address Tuesday night. Other than the debates, Paul won't be in Florida. He'll be campaigning in other states where he's more popular.
"The Speaker has captured the pent up frustration, aggravation and doubt about the country," Bergerson said about Gingrich. "He has put together an anti-establishment Republican coalition."
Bergerson said that if Gingrich excels in Monday's debate in Tampa, Fla., and another Thursday in Jacksonville, Fla., he will continue to gain on Romney.
"He has struck a chord with Republican voters who are fed up. He did a masterful political job in his last debate."
Willoughby said another reason for Gingrich's appeal is that he adheres to a tea party principle: "Say what you mean and mean what you say."
And that's why Cape Coral, Fla., Republican Lisa Musial has not waivered in her support for Gingrich.
"His stance on most concerns mirror those that are important to Americans," she said. "And the fact that he's apologetic about his past should be enough for the public and the liberals to leave alone. He's just a good guy, and what I think is needed to make a difference, to give Americans the real hope and change they've been waiting for these past three-plus years."
Nevertheless, Romney remains ahead in the latest Florida polls, but Gingrich is eating away at the margin, just as he did in the days leading up to the South Carolina election.
Bergerson said all this is adding up to trouble for the Republican Party.
"South Carolina puts an end to the 'let's unite behind one candidate' talk," he said. "If it goes much longer it will be that much harder to beat Obama.. After Florida it's likely to be a two-man race ... we'll see what develops from there. What we know is the unknown."
The News-Press